According to anc.abs-cbnnews.com, the "US won't take sides in PH-China dispute" The news station was emphatic: "The US will honor its mutual defense treaty with the PH, but it will not take sides in the Scarborough Shoal standoff between Manila and Beijing."
To us, Defenders of the Philippine Sabah and Spratly Claims, "diplomatic speak" is what the US is doing at the moment. The US cannot proclaim loud and clear that it will stand by the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal (nor over any of the disputed territories by the West Philippine Sea) because it would do the Philippines no good at all to proclaim at this point that they [the US] might have to come to our defence should our sovereignty be violated by China. What we are not seeing is what they are doing through diplomatic channels, i.e., with the DFA through their Embassy in Manila. Moreover, we must see/read between the lines: the US is overtly doing Balikatan exercises with our troops and that is enough signal to send to China and to foreign powers that are thinking of threatening our sovereignty to be careful.
However, there is a caveat, if you like, an important provision in the RP-US Mutual Defence Treaty: The US will act in accordance to the treaty should any of its physical interests in the Philippines is directly hit by a potential foreign aggressor. Otherwise, the US will not lift a finger overtly despite the Treaty. Rest assured that it's easy enough to go around that caveat should things escalate.
We are pleased to note that the members of the Akbayan Party (left wing anti-US but pro-China ideologues), shown in picture, are keen to display their sense of Philippine patriotism against aggressive Red China. Bravo!
NB: If you have a Facebook account, you can join and participate in the ongoing discussions about the Philippines-China dispute over the Scarborough Shoal at the Philippine Sabah Claim Forum on Facebook.
NB: If you have a Facebook account, you can join and participate in the ongoing discussions about the Philippines-China dispute over the Scarborough Shoal at the Philippine Sabah Claim Forum on Facebook.
We posted the following comments on Manuel Buencamino's blog http://www.uniffors.com/?p=6587:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.uniffors.com/?p=6587
“Diplomatic speak” is what the US is doing at the moment. The US cannot proclaim loud and clear that it will stand by the Philippines over the Scarborough Shoal (nor over any of the disputed territories by the West Philippine Sea) because it would do the Philippines no good at all to proclaim at this point that they [the US] might have to come to our defence should our sovereignty be violated by China.
What we are not seeing is what they are doing through diplomatic channels, i.e., with the DFA through their Embassy in Manila. Moreover, we must see/read between the lines: the US is overtly doing Balikatan exercises with our troops and that is enough signal to send to China and to foreign powers that are thinking of threatening our sovereignty to be careful.
(Much in the same way when on two occasions the US publicly refused to take sides in the UK-Argentina Falklands conflict, i.e., when then Pres Reagan publicly admonished then PM Thatcher to try to reach an accord with Argentina but privately gave the UK full backing including sensitive intel, and recently when Hillary Clinton said in a speech in Buenos Aires that the US cannot take sides in the brewing Falklands conflict but in reality is backing the UK. The US cannot openly say what it is doing. It is in the interest of the US nor that of the Philippines not to be seen as openly taking sides or not to be playing the diplomatic speak.)
However, there is a caveat, if you like, an important provision in the RP-US Mutual Defence Treaty: The US will act in accordance to the treaty should any of its physical interests in the Philippines is directly hit by a potential foreign aggressor. Otherwise, the US will not lift a finger overtly despite the Treaty. Rest assured that it’s easy enough to go around that caveat should things escalate.
On a side but important note, China will think twice before it uses heavy force in the region because heavy force, i.e., military, could militarily affect US interests in the area directly and if that happens, China realises full well that the North Atlantic Alliance of which the US is a key member cannot remain neutral.
Let’s put it this way: If the US “owns” a piece of territory or has direct control of a piece of territory in the area, eg., a military base (which is not the case in Pinas but case in Japan and Korea) and is hit by the Chinese (a kind of domino effect — you never know what can happen when naval assets meet in those waters) or if Chinese actions are seen or interpreted as directly targeting US “interests” in the region, the US could and would possibly invoke Article 5 of the NATO Charter, “an attack on one is an attack on all.” A long shot but not improbable.
China is fully aware of the repercussions of “attacking” a major ally of the US in the region. As we speak, there is already a submarine fleet engaged in the Pacific waters watching the movements of China navy.
In other words, the US cannot abandon the Philippines. Nothing to do with love for Pinas… it is all about geopolitical and military strategy.