On China's threat to seize Pag-Asa in 2014: President Aquino and his lieutenants must not be caught flat-footed again

Pag-Asa Island air strip

"In the face of this seriously alarming China threat of invasion of Pag-Asa, the Republic of the Philippines has one realistic defence option to prove to China that we are determined to defend Pag-Asa Island: President Aquino, in his capacity as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines must order CSAFP to deploy a minimum of a military brigade to the island immediately. We may not have the sophisticated military material capability to do "mano-a-mano" with China's invading armed forces but we certainly have enough troops to field on Pag-Asa."

By Anne de Bretagne
For the Defenders of the Philippine Sabah & Spratly Claims
12 January 2013

Inhabitants of Pag-Asa Island, Palawan

China Daily Mail.com broke the news yesterday that the PLA Navy "has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea."  

Chinese troops to seize Zhongye Island* back from the Philippines, in a news report dated 11 January 2014:

"Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years.
"It will be an intolerable insult to China. According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China. There will be no invasion into Filipino territories. A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island."

The threat to "seize" Pag-Asa Island should not really come as a surprise anymore to the Philippines. As early as July 2011, China media had already posted news from mainland that China was protesting "Filipino's landing on Zhongye Island". Surely, China's July 2011 protestations, which had appeared in China media, had been registered by DND and DFA officials and so, our national security experts, including President Aquino, would have known that there was every possibility that ever belligerent and aggressive China would not stop at mere protestations. Below is the July 2011 report by China Daily:

China protests Filipino's landing on Zhongye Island Updated: 2011-07-21 07:40 (Xinhua)
BEIJING - The Chinese government on Wednesday expressed "strong protest" over several Filipino lawmakers' landing on China's Zhongye Island in the South China Sea.
"China has indisputable sovereignty over the South China Sea islands and their surrounding waters," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu said when responding to a question on the Filipino lawmakers' move. Media reports said a group of Filipino lawmakers flew Wednesday to the island, which is called Pagasa Island by Filipinos, to assert their country's claim to the region.
"The move of the Philippine side seriously infringed China's territorial sovereignty," Ma said. 

That 2011 China "protest" should have been considered enough warning of some kind by our officials, by Messrs Aquino, Gazmin, del Rosario and their seconds no less. But obviously not! Seems, some people at the top are sleeping on the job and are not taking China's pronouncements and warnings seriously.

But when will our officials learn to be pro-active, not to be caught flatfooted in their job? Why, this week's news have it that the DND is not even aware that China has enforced some kind of fishing authorisation policy in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, something that China announced they would do as early as November 2012 followed by press releases in February 2013.

According to Philippine Star, when DND Undersecretary Galvez was asked to comment on reports that China is now requiring foreign fishermen to seek its permission to operate in the West Philippine Sea, Mr Galvez said, “We will have to verify statements regarding this alleged fishing rules by China,” as he insisted that countries “are free to enforce fishing rules within their own EEZ.”

Will verify the reports about the new China "fishing regulation"? But where has DND been? What on earth is Mr Galvez mouthing? Didn't the DND know that China announced in late 2012 that they had scheduled the stop and verify, i.e., shipboarding policy, of all fishing vessels that are not Chinese in the whole of South China Sea/WPS for January 2014? 

Why, we even blogged about it in November 2012 after China threatened to shipboard foreign ships in a show of brazen ignorance and great stupidity. In fact, General J Sabban, then Western Commad commanding general promptly said of the China announced shipboarding plans, "We will repel!" So, I really don't understand why the DND is caught flatfooted again... We again blogged about China's fishing interdiction plans in February 2013: Is China about to transform South China Sea/West PH Sea into a naval war zone?  following their press announcement in the same month of the same year that they would be enforcing this policy by January 2014. In fact, in that blog, I warned:

"If the Philippine Government and its qualified maritime waters protection agencies do not move quick enough, the country -- and its fishermen, may just  lose its economic access to and its rights in its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone for good."

So, if we, amateur China watchers that we are (this author included), manage to know what China's plans are and have taken them as serious warnings, enough to devote time and energy to blog about them, why is it that the Dept of Natl Defense gives the impression that they are wholly ignorant of China's plans, plans we must remind them had been broadcast long in advance?

President Aquino, Secretary Voltaire Gazmin, defence policy makers, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario, members of the country's 'august' Congress, and the Armed Forces of the Philippines must not be caught flatfooted again! Yesterday's announcement by China that they will militarily seize, i.e., invade, a municipality of Palawan must be taken seriously. This is not the time to do-lally. This is not the time to ask the same question they asked themselves when China grabbed Scarborough Shoal, i.e., "But what can we do?" Any self-respecting government can come up with a few doable solutions to deter foreign invasion especially after the invading country announced its plan. The question really is how determined are we to defend our territory from China's invasion?

In the face of this seriously alarming China threat of invasion of Pag-Asa, the Republic of the Philippines has one realistic defence option to prove to China that we are determined to defend Pag-Asa Island: President Aquino, in his capacity as commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines must order CSAFP to deploy a minimum of a military brigade to the island immediately. We may not have the sophisticated military material capability to do "mano-a-mano" with China's invading armed forces but we certainly have enough troops to field on Pag-Asa.

While a brigade of 3,000 men may not be enough, such defence move by Mr Aquino and his subalterns will send the message that our nation is prepared and will give these Chinese invading bastards the most difficult time landing on our shore. Heck, if we are brave, we can even mine Pag-Asa's coasts!

A farm on Pag-Asa Island

And in parallel, PH must launch a political and "diplomatic" offensive. Direction? The United Nations! But we must be "armed" with evidence which even this wally Aquino Govt can realistically gather today by  taking full stock of who and what is on Pag-Asa island!

It is imperative, really, of utmost importance that every person, every man, woman and child on Pag-Asa island be registered as a Filipino citizen, each carrying PH passport or a form of official PH national identification. Every single item, motorised  or not on that island, eg., car, tractor, jeep, boat, animals, farm, etc, etc, etc, is registered as a Filipino-owned property. Every single plot of land, building, edifice, etc. on Pag-Asa, both private or PH Govt owned, must be registered with the National, Provincial and Municipal governments. There must be complete inventory!

This pile or piles of Pag-Asa records must be brought and presented to the United Nations as evidence that Pag-Asa Island is PH inhabited  and is sovereign PH territory. I don't know how exactly this can be done but surely our Department of Foreign Affairs can exhaust all means, use every trick in the diplomatic and UN books to ensure that Pag-Asa Island and its inhabitants are recognised in the United Nations. The task may be Herculean but it must be done.

And lastly, it is absolutely vital that the Philippine Navy, the Philippine Coast Guard, the Philippine Air Force, the Philippine Marines must maintain regular operations on the waters that separate Pag-Asa from its mother island, Palawan. Provision the island by sea regularly. With China's announcement of this "imminent" danger to our sovereignty and to the hundreds of inhabitants of Pag-Asa, the Armed Forces must "re-jig" their operational plans. We must show naval presence in those waters. The Navy and the Coast Guard must patrol those waters. Even an amateur navy or maritime operations enthusiast like this author knows that patrolling and showing presence in our waters is a key element to the survival of Pag-Asa.

Pag-Asa Mayor Eugenio Bito-onon

The Aquino government must not do-lally. Sufficient warnings have been issued. Mr Aquino and his subalterns at DND, at DFA, and all of Govt, must not be caught flat-footed again. Filipinos must do everything to give themselves and our people on Pag-Asa Island a fighting chance to thwart China's invasion plans of Pag-Asa Island by being prepared. PH Govt officials and its Armed Forces must not rest until the Republic is satisfied it has done everything it can to ensure the security of our people and of Pag-Asa. (Do the inhabitants/residents of Pag-Asa Island even know that China has threatened to seize, i.e., invade, the island this year?)

If despite the warnings from China itself, our officials led by Mr Aquino fail to do what is necessary to put up a vigorous defence with the means at the disposal of the Republic, no matter how meagre they are, they must be shot not only for negligence but also for treason.


~~~~O~~~~

*China's name version for Pag-Asa Island is Zhongye Island or more commonly known as Thitu Island http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thitu_Island

**Pictures of people, places and life in Pag-Asa Island, lifted from Mabuhay City Forum

Related blog posts:

• 29 Nov 2012: China threatens to shipboard foreign ships in a show of brazen ignorance and great stupidity "Police in Hainan will be authorized to board and search ships that illegally enter the province's waters in 2013, as part of China's latest efforts to protect the South China Sea." From GBTimes.
• 06 February 2013: Is China about to transform the South China Sea-West Philippine Sea into a naval 'war zone'? "If the Philippine Government and its qualified maritime waters protection agencies do not move quick enough, the country -- and its fishermen, may just  lose its economic access to and its rights in its 200 nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone for good."

Posted by NEMO NOS IMPUNE LACESSIT

No 'ifs', no 'buts': China PLA Navy must invoke Right to Innocent Passage if cruising through PH seas, PH western seaboard

For info of members of the Defenders of the Philippine Sabah and Spratly Claims  with regard to maritime issues, i.e., freedom of navigation, maritime trade, etc.: 

We must remember that our EEZ (Exclusive Economic Zone) is ours to exploit exclusively for economic purposes but is NOT forbidden to China, Taiwan, Malaysia or to any other foreign ships, not even to armed warships, but THERE ARE CERTAIN RESTRICTIONS FOR ANY FOREIGN SHIP TO USE OUR territorial seas or to pass through our EEZ. Ships entering our territorial seas must invoke RIGHT OF INNOCENT PASSAGE. In doing so, they are recognising our sovereignty rights and our right to the our seas.

International or foreign flag bearing ships are allowed to go through PH waters. However, foreign armed vessels MUST invoke right of innocent passage. Foreign ships, especially armed ships that do not invoke this basic international law of the sea may be considered to potentially cause us prejudice and can be considered "hostile."

If, for instance, China Navy refuses to do it, they are, in effect, telling our government that they do not recognise those waters as Philippine EEZ. In such a case, China PLA navy ships cruising through our waters are doing it without permission and may be considered hostile as in "armed and dangerous" and can be classified as enemy warships.

So, what is Right of Innocent Passage?

As summed up by the US Dept of Defense:

It is the right of all ships to engage in continuous and expeditious surface passage through the territorial sea and archipelagic waters of foreign coastal states in a manner not prejudicial to its peace, good order, or security. Passage includes stopping and anchoring, but only if incidental to ordinary navigation or necessary by force majeure or distress, or for the purpose of rendering assistance to persons, ships, or aircraft in danger or distress. ~~ Dictionary of Military and Associated Terms. US Department of Defense 2005.

A more comprehensive definition of Right of Innocent Passage: A term of international law referring to a ship or aircraft's right to enter and pass through another's territory so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the other state.

The right to innocent passage has been codified in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea of December 10, 1982, extracts from 17 and 19 follow:

"... ships of all States, whether coastal or land-locked, enjoy the right of innocent passage through the territorial sea. 

"Passage is innocent so long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State. Such passage shall take place in conformity with this Convention and with other rules of international law. 

"Passage of a foreign ship shall be considered to be prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the coastal State if in the territorial sea it engages in any of the following activities: 

• any threat or use of force against the sovereignty, territorial integrity or political independence of the coastal State, or in any other manner in violation of the principles of international law embodied in the Charter of the United Nations;
• any exercise or practice with weapons of any kind;
• any act aimed at collecting information to the prejudice of the defence or security of the coastal State;
• any act of propaganda aimed at affecting the defence or security of the coastal State;
• the launching, landing or taking on board of any aircraft;
• the launching, landing or taking on board of any military device;
• the loading or unloading of any commodity, currency or person contrary to the customs, fiscal, immigration or sanitary laws and regulations of the coastal State;
• any act of wilful and serious pollution contrary to this Convention;
• any fishing activities;
• the carrying out of research or survey activities;
• any act aimed at interfering with any systems of communication or any other facilities or installations of the coastal State;
• any other activity not having a direct bearing on passage." 

NB: Even United States Navy warships do not just cruise through our waters without "permission" - it is a courtesy required of all navies to perform as part of the International Law of the Sea on Right of Innocent Passage.

~~ Admins, Defenders of the Philippine Sabah & Spratly Claims
01 June 2013

Source: Duhaime Legal Dictionary 

Sound off the alarm: Pirates are coming! China invades Spratlys with so-called fishing flotilla

Folowing the imposition of a 15-nautical mile no entry zone around Scarborough Shoal which is located some 130 nautical miles from Zambales and is found well within the 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) of the Philippines, China launched an offensive yesterday to show virtual control of the Spratlys by sending one of its largest recorded fishing fleets to West Philippine Sea.

The waters in the Spratlys are known to be rich fishing grounds and are believed to contain a vast reservoir of oil and gas. But we are not confident that China is sending a Chinese fishing flotilla to the Spratlys merely to do a bit of fishing. We believe that some of these so-called 'fishing ships' include China PLA Navy elements which they have deployed "to plant" potential military communications or warfare paraphernalia which, in the future or in case of an armed conflict, will help serve as beachhead installations.

Mischief Reef stolen by China
from PH in 1994

We must not to forget that in 1994, while the Philippines was not looking, China invaded Mischief Reef and installed 'sheds' which China leadership pretexted were to be used as shelter for their fishermen.  Before the decade was over, China had transformed Mischief Reef into a sophisticated "listening" outpost and has turned it into a full-pledged military garrison.

Note that China has been aggressively pursuing a militarisation objective in the Spratlys and have been continuosly doing naval warfare exercises in the area that include underwater minelaying. It is a known principle that the country that controls the Spratlys and its waters will also control the sea lanes of communication (SLOCs) which could seriously imperil freedom of navigation for many countries that use those SLOCs.

It is imperative for the Philippine Navy and the Philippine Coast Guard to patrol the territorial waters of the Philippine Kalayaan Islands relentlessly to ensure that this latest naval maneuver by China will not go 'overboard' as in invade our inhabited Pag-Asa Island in the Spratlys and the other occupied PH Spratly territories. 

The Philippine Navy and the Coast Guard must put it in their heads that their presence in those waters is a deterrence in itself. 

Forewarned is forearmed! 

~~ By Anne de Bretagne

For the Defenders of the Philippine Sabah and Spratly Claims

07 May 2013

INQUIRER NEWS REPORT: China sends large fleet to disputed Spratlys 

BEIJING—China has sent one of its largest recorded fishing fleets to disputed islands in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), state-run media said on Tuesday, amid tensions over Beijing’s assertion of its claims in the region. 

A flotilla including 30 fishing vessels set sail on Monday for the Spratly Islands, an archipelago disputed between China and other countries including the Philippines and Vietnam, the China Daily reported. 

The fleet left China’s southern province of Hainan for a 40-day trip to the region, the report said, and includes two large transport and supply ships. 

Chinese fishing boats regularly travel to the Spratlys, parts of which are also claimed by Taiwan and Brunei, but the fleet dispatched Monday was as large as one described as the biggest ever launched from the province when it set off last year. 

China will make “every effort to guarantee the fleet’s safety,” the report quoted an official from the department of ocean and fisheries as saying. 

China and neighboring countries have long used fishing fleets and maritime patrols to assert their territorial claims, and have upgraded their naval forces in recent years as tensions over claims in the West Philippine Sea have risen. 

The Philippines and Vietnam have complained that China is becoming increasingly aggressive in its actions in the area — such as harassing fishermen — and also through bullying diplomatic tactics. 

The waters around the Spratlys are rich in fishing resources and it is believed they could hold large oil and gas reserves.

OTHER NOTES:

What are the Spratlys? 

According to Wikipedia, The Spratly Islands are a group of more than 750 reefs, islets, atolls, cays and islands in the South China Sea. The archipelago lies off the coasts of thePhilippines and Malaysia (Sabah), about one third of the way from there to southern Vietnam. They comprise less than four square kilometers of land area spread over more than 425,000 square kilometers of sea. The Spratlys are one of three archipelagos of the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea which comprise more than 30,000 islands and reefs...

A BIT OF KALAYAAN ISLANDS/PHILIPPINE SPRATLY ISLANDS HISTORY (from Wikipedia):

The Philippines sent troops to the Spratly group for the first time in 1968. It prioritized large islands such as Pagasa (Thitu) Island, Likas (West York) Island, Parola Island (Northeast Cay), Kota (Loaita) Island, Lawak (Nanshan) Island, and Pugad Island (Southwest Cay). Two small islands, Patag (Flat) Island and Panata Island (Lankiam Cay), were also occupied. Both are less than a hectare in size. 

To further the claim of the Philippines on the island group, the late President Ferdinand Marcos, on June 11, 1978, formally annexed the Kalayaan Islands by virtue of Presidential Decree No.1596 to the Palawan.

December 2012 photo of China attack
submarine being fitted for warfare 

In very early February, we sounded the following alarm:  BEWARE OF YOUR BACKDOOR NEIGHBOORS KEEP UP THE DRUM BEAT FOR SCARBOROUGH SHOAL AND FOR ALL PH ISLANDS IN THE SPRATLYS!

DO NOT FORGET SCARBOROUGH SHOAL... KEEP UP THE DRUM BEAT FOR SCARBOROUGH SHOAL AND FOR ALL PH ISLANDS IN THE SPRATLYS. 

PH TECHNICALLY 'OCCUPIES' 10 FEATURES comprising seven islands and three reefs in the Spratlys but 'militarily occupies' only 7 of the 10 features*...
BUT IF YOU THINK, ONLY CHINA IS STEALING OUR ISLANDS (Mischief Reef, Scarborough, Half Moon Shoal, Sabina Shoal), WELL, YOU ARE MISTAKEN!

MALAYSIA HAS STOLEN FROM PH TWO ISLANDS THAT TECHNICALLY BELONG TO THE KALAYAAN ISLAND GROUP while PH was not looking... They occupied Erica Reef (Gabriela Silang Reef) which is part of the Philippine Kalayaan Island Group attached to the Municipality of Kalayaan, District of Palawan as well as Investigator Shoal (Pawikan Reef). Both are well within the 200 nautical mile EEZ of the Philippines.

NOTE: In 1999, Malaysia occupied Gabriela Silang Reef (Erica Reef) and Pawikan Reef (Investigator Shoal), causing the Philippines to protest but nothing came out of it. (Incidentally, Vietnam has also stolen one our islands when PH troops were away partying... But that is another story.)

Not only has Malaysia illegally annexed Sabah, they now use Sabah to lay claims and to occupy other islets, reefs, shoals that they say are within Sabah's 200 nautical mile EEZ. They occupied Swallow Reef (Celerio for the Philippines), which they now call Layang-Layang, on the basis that it is within Sabah's EEZ and have been maintaining a Malaysia Navy offshore security post called Uniform Station on the reef.

*CLAIM & OCCUPATION
The Philippines is now left with the following "features" in the Spratly (Wiki):
Pagasa Island (Thitu Island)
Likas Island (West York Island)
Parola Island (Northeast Cay)
Lawak Island (Nanshan Island)
Kota Island (Loaita Island)
Patag Island (Flat Island)
Panata Island (Lankiam Cay)
Rizal Reef (Commodore Reef)
Balagtas Reef (Irving Reef)
Ayungin Reef (Second Thomas Reef)

But only 7 of them are militarily occupied (Wiki):
Occupied by the Philippines
Thitu Island · Pagasa Island
West York Island · Likas Island
Northeast Cay · Parola Island
Nanshan Island · Lawak Island
Loaita Island · Kota Island
Flat Island · Patag Island
Lankiam Cay · Panata Island

BEWARE OF YOUR BACKDOOR NEIGHBOURS!

We also posted about so-called China PLA Navy's 'active coastal defence': First and second island chains:

A BETTER ILLUSTRATION OF THE "FIRST AND SECOND ISLAND CHAINS" WHICH ARE THE STRATEGIC FOCUS OF THE CHINA PLA NAVY's 'ACTIVE COASTAL DEFENCE'.  

This is why we will be seeing more of China PLA naval maneuvers from the Pacific Ocean into the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea -- just as we will be seeing more and more of US naval fleet maneuvers from the Pacific Ocean and the West PH Seas too! These "First and Second Island Chains" routes will be become the biggest naval "playground" in the world.

More and more, China will be strengthening their capability to obstruct those waters in the event of a war with the United States and they will do it by constantly doing maneuvers through those "ISLAND CHAINS". If you noticed, yesterday, China PLA Navy led by missile destroyer Qingdao triumphantly announced that their fleet that was deployed for patrol and other exercises had passed the "First Island Chain."

The United States knows that the 'First Island Chain' and the 'Second Island Chain' will be crucial in its strategy decision making process. In fact, the 'forecast' is that in "another 10-15 years, America’s qualitative military advantage will be eroded to the point that a conflict over Taiwan would jeopardize several large ships and aircraft carriers."

~~ Admin AdB, Defenders of the Philippine Sabah & Spratly Claims 

RELATED POSTS:

• China pirates more of PH EEZ; imposes a 15-nautical mile no entry zone around Scarborough Shoal
• Philippines must not allow China to creep invade the Spratlys just like they did to Mischief Reef
• Mischief Reef and then Scarborough Shoal: "Never again?"
• The importance of the Spratlys and why it may be a "flash point" if China insists on blocking passage
• Cause of the Philippines-China stand off in Scarborough
• How can the Philippines reverse its Scarborough tactical blunder?
• China's Act of Piracy: Philippines must continue patrolling its Exclusive Economic Zone
• United Nation Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), West Philippine Sea and Scarborough Shoal
• China and Malaysia have hijacked PH territories in West Philippine Sea 
• China PLA Navy's 'active coastal defence': First and second island chains 
• China's ultimate weapons of mass destructions will be their inter-continental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) 
• China's minelaying technology

Tragic and ironic: Scarborough Shoal used to be called "Panacot Shoal"; must be renamed "Natacot Shoal"

IN THE 17th century, Scarborough Shoal used to be called "Panacot" (as in "Fearsome"), pronounced phonetically as "panakot", as shown in this map*. Today, its Philippine name is Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc. But in reality, it should be renamed "Natacot" ("Frightened"), pronounced phonetically as "natakot", in opposition to its original formidable name. Really, "Natacot Shoal" seems to be the more appropriate name.

The shoal cannot realistically be called "Panacot" or "Fearsome" as in someone or something that can or will scare the living daylight out of someone which is what the Pilipino word 'panakot' means. The brutal fact is the shoal is no longer in Philippine hands because China frightened PH. The shoal has been hijacked by China, roped off to deny access to its original owners, PH. Filipino fishermen who have been fishing in Scarborough waters are forbidden by its stealers, China, to make a living out of its waters.

There is logic to renaming the erstwhile Panacot Island/Shoal "Natacot Shoal" since the guardians and protectors of our waters, i.e., Philippine Navy, Philippine Coast Guard whose role is to fight for and to defend Philippine sovereignty if need be, no longer even patrol Scarborough waters which are located in West Philippine Sea because current leadership apparently does not wish to offend China for fear of provoking a conflict, hence "natakot" (i.e., was or were frightened.)

In fact, in April 2012 during a stand off in Scarborough after Philippine Navy flagship BRP Gregorio del Pilar handed Chinese poachers to the Philippine Coast Guard, at the first hint of trouble, BRP Gregorio del Pilar (shown) was ordered to withdraw -- Philippine officials were "natakot" (frightened) at the thought of a naval confrontation. General Gregorio del Pilar, the young great revolutionary hero who died defending Tirad Pass from the American invaders and after whom the Philippine Navy flagship was named, must be turning in his grave.

By July 2012, Philippine ships had withdrawn altogether leaving China ships in control of Scarborough. China has since erected a barrier to the entrance of the shoal. Vessels belonging to Beijing's China Marine Surveillance and Fisheries Law Enforcement Command were observed near the disputed shoal. Scarborough Shoal, effectiveley, has ceased to be under Philippine control.  

It is doubtful that China will return "Natacot Shoal", er, we mean Scarborough/Panatag/Panacot Shoal to the Philippines. PH lost whatever chance of retaining sovereignty over "Panacot Shoal" when PH ships were ordered to withdraw from Scarborough just because PH officials were "natakot" (frightened).

This tragedy is similar to the Sabah claim tragedy which began fifty years ago when PH Govt presented its first claim to Sabah. Today, there are groups seeking to revive the Sabah claim. In 50 years, our great, great grandchildren will be putting up "Defenders of Philippine Natacot Shoal Claim" groups... How mercilessly ironic that would be. Well, if they have the same kind of govt officials or leaders we've got today, they will need a lot of luck to make China give up "Natacot" and that is assuming that China has not yet invaded PH islands in the Spratlys.

Related post: Why China cannot be trusted: Continuing violation of 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties, List of incidents with China in West Philippine Sea, and China's continuing intimidation of Philippines and Vietnam 

*The 17th century map was first posted on Philippine Sabah Claim Forum by Admin RCR

US-China naval rivalry: Despite shrinking fleet America still wins

"Four-and-a-half acres of sovereign U.S. Territory where it's needed. when it's needed."*

Reuters' report, "Analysis: New China landing vessels point to Pacific rivalry" -- although published last year, is still valid today.

According to said Reuters report: "China in 2010 overtook South Korea to become the world's biggest shipbuilder and industry experts say the leading state-owned shipyards are steadily improving skills and technology with the launch of bigger and more complex oil tankers, container ships and other, more specialized vessels."

The same report said that China's best warships and submarines are now equiped with advanced air defense weapons and long range, anti-ship missiles.

The report added that in its annual report to Congress on the Chinese military in 2011, the Pentagon  said the People's Liberation Army (PLA) navy now has the following:

• about 75 major warships
• more than 60 submarines
• 55 medium and heavy amphibious ships
• and about 85 smaller, missile-armed fast attack craft.

Although the United Stees naval fleet is 'shrinking', America still remains the dominant navy worldwide. The US Navy has a 285-strong fleet which includes:

• 11 aircraft carriers,
• more than 70 nuclear powered submarines 
• and 22 cruisers

To read full Reuters report link here.

Furthermore, the United States has an option to call or not to call NATO if ever the going gets tough. An attack on the United States will enable the US to invoke Articles 4 and 5 of NATO Charter, the latter of which, simply put, is as follows: "An attack on one is an attack on all!"

~~ AdB,  Defenders of the Philippine Sabah and Spratly Claims
12 Feb 20013 

*Picture of Poster given to Admin ADB by Northtrop Grumman during a buissiness visit to Newport News, VA.

Why China cannot be trusted: Continuing violation of 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties, List of incidents with China in West Philippine Sea, and China's continuing intimidation of Philippines and Vietnam

Photo from East Asia Forum

By Admininstrators 

Defenders of Philippine Sabah and Spratly Claims and the Philippine Sabah Claim Forum

04 February 2012
 
Why is China so belligerent, expressing extreme hostility and aggression towards Vietnam and the Philippines even after it vows to adhere to the 2002 Declaration of the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea?
 
As late as last week, China's foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei declared that "China disagrees with moves that go against the concensus (reached before)." And of course, the concensus Hong was referring to was the 2002 DOC. 
 
Yet, if you examine closely, despite China's repeated vows that it would adhere to the provisions set out in the said 2002 Declaration, President Aquino's "administration has protested at least six incidents, including Reed Bank incident, involving alleged Chinese intrusion into waters within the Philippines 200 nautical miles exclusive economic zone."
 
NB: We have actually added a series of other "events" to that list that clearly indicate China's violations of the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.
 
It is clear that since the signing of that 2002 DOC, China has not only NOT observed the provisions of that DOC but has also stepped up their belligerence and overt hostile actions in the disputed South China Sea/Philippine Sea. 
 
Tran Truong Thuy wrote in his paper Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Regional Security and Cooperation:

This unpredictability in China’s policy on the South China Sea partly also reflects on the table of negotiation on the implementation of the DOC. At the fifth meetings of ASEAN-China JWG in Kunming, China in December 2010, China just came back to its previous position of bilateralism by proposing to delete the point 2 of the Guidelines and to consider that the Guidelines are guiding principles for implementing only the “agreed joint cooperation activities stated in the DOC”, not for implementing the Declaration at whole. China refused to agree on organizing ASEAN-China SOM on DOC implementation by arguing that the SOM can not be held until JWG reached a consensus on the Guidelinesstated in the DOC. 

China, in fact, continues to speak with a fork tongue to date -- saying one thing and doing another. Until November 2012 or following the July ASEAN Heads of States meeting in Cambodia, Chinese Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei has kept humming the same tune, “The Chinese side is willing to work together with the ASEAN members to implement the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) comprehensively and effectively."
 
No sooner than Mr Hong announced the said assurance, China announced new rules that would allow its maritime police to intercept foreign ships in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea which alarmed not only the Philippines but the rest of the world as well.
 
There is no other way to put it except that China is determined to have selective amnesia. It has been nitpicking, hair splitting, and misinterpreting the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea which it co-signed with all the members of ASEAN that year.
 
But the most overt act of their hostility against the Philippines in clear violation of the 2002 DOC was their roping off of Scarborough Shoal in June 2012 after a stand-off* between the Philippine Navy and China surveillance ships.
 
Scarborough Shoal, which is well into the 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone of the Philippines as the shoal is located just a little more than 120 nautical miles off the coast of Zambales, has become off limits to Philippine fishermen who, for centuries, have fished in Scarborough waters and taken refuge in Scarborough Shoal. 
 
So, on 22 January 2012, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario announced that PH was taking China to the UN for arbitration.
 
Yet on January 23, China's foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei was urging the Philippines "to avoid taking any action that could complicate the issue" after Philippine Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario said that the Philippine government had taken its South China Sea disputes to an Arbitral Tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). 
 
As expected, on 31 January 2012, China's Foreign Ministry announced its opposition to the Philippines' request to take South China Sea disputes to a UN tribunal. Responding to a question at a news briefing, spokesman Hong Lei said, "China disagrees with moves that go against the consensus [reached before.]"

On 04 February 2012, in a show aimed at intimidating its neigbours specifically the Philippines, an ally of the United States, China launched maritime patrol and naval drills in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea. 
Photos released by the official website of the Communist Party contained the following caption: "Recently two frigates of South Sea Fleet conduct drill and patrol in South China sea in order to meet the demand of future maritime battles." 
 
Thanks to the papers by Center for Strategic and International Studies, Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Regional Security and Cooperation by Tran Truong Thuy, and the article by Dr. Jingdong Yuan, University of Sydney, Australia for the International Security Research and Outreach Programme, International Security and Intelligence Bureau posted on Foreign Affairs and Trade Canada, we were able to compile details of events and incidents - which we have worked hard to list chronologically for easier reading, in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea, events and incidents which seemed to have been triggered by China's increasing assertiveness and vehement brand of diplomacy.

Here they are as follows:

March 2011 -- On March 2, two Chinese patrol boats aggressively harassed the seismic survey vessel operating by Energy Forum company, which had been awarded a contract by the Philippine government to exploration of gas field located inside Reed Bank, an area 80 miles west of Palawan. 

May 2011 -- On May 26, 2011, other incident, in this time between China and Vietnam, took place in an area just about 80 miles off the south-central  coast of Vietnam, within Vietnam exclusive economic zone, when three Chinese patrol boats harassed a Vietnamese ship Binh Minh 02 exploring for oil in the South China Sea, damaging equipment and warning the ship that it was violating Chinese territory.  

June 2011 -- Other serious incident relating to report of the Philippine military in that a Chinese surveillance vessel and navy ships were seen unloading building materials and erecting posts in the vicinity of Iroquois Reef and Amy Douglas Bank – an uninhabited undersea hill claimed by the Philippines about 230 kilometers from southwestern Palawan province.

If report of Philippine military is correct, it is clear that China seriously violates the DOC 2002, in article 5 of which states that “The Parties undertake to exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities that would complicate or escalate disputes and affect peace and stability including, among others, refraining from action of inhabiting on the presently uninhabited islands, reefs, shoals, cays, and other features and to handle their differences in a constructive manner.”75(Italic added) 

June 2011 - Similar incident occurred on June 9, 2011, when a Chinese fishing boat, with support from Chinese fishing patrol vessels, rammed the survey cables of the PetroVietnam ship Viking II, which was conducting a seismic survey in Block 136-03, an area within 200 miles exclusive economic zone of Vietnam and more than 622  miles from China’s Hainan island. 

Vietnam MOFA spokesperson Nguyen Phuong Nga said “these acts are tailored in a very systematic way by the Chinese side with the aim to turn undisputed areas into disputed areas”. 

The Viking II incident took place only four days after Chinese Defense Minister Liang Guanglie reassured neighbors at Sangri-la Dialogue in Singapore that China poses no threat. 

NB: The above list were lifted from the paper: Recent Developments in the South China Sea: Implications for Regional Security and Cooperation

Below is a list of events and incidents involving China which were posted on Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada website:

March 5, 2009 US and China PLA-Navy and Y-12 aircraft ‘shouldered’ the USS Impeccable. Shadowed and maneuvered by 5 Chinese ships.Chinese attempted to cause the Impeccable to collide. US and China both maintained rightfulness of their actions based on their different interpretations of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.US used the Freedom of Navigation program to challenge the territorial claims by China.

July, 2010 - US, China and other East Asian regional countries. Fishing incidents at sea/High-level meeting. Chinese vessel collided with Japanese.Beijing withheld shipments from Japan.US offered to facilitate talks between China and its neighbours. China refused, knowing that the US had new and old allies in the region 

March 2, 2011 Philippines and China Incident at sea - Philippines oil exploration vessel was sandwiched between 2 Chinese naval boats, intimidating them to drive it away from the area. Manila dispatched 2 warplanes and a bomber to deter the intruding Chinese gunboats.Lodged a strong diplomatic protest with Beijing over harassment but it was shrugged off 

May, 2011 - Philippines and China Major Incidents - Two Chinese fighter jets had flown over the Philippines territory in the Spratly IslandsControl over this is an issue of sea-lane control, the ability to interdict sea-lanes, and the potential for deep-sea resource mining. 

May, 2011 - Vietnam and China Vietnam protested China’s annual imposition of a fishing ban from May to August. 

May-June, 2011 - Philippines, Vietnam and China Incidents at Sea - 3 Chinese maritime security naval vessels disabled a cable trailing of a Vietnamese oil exploration ship.Forced the ship out of waters off Vietnam’s south-eastern coast.Similar incidents occurred in May near Vietnam, and in March near the Philippines.Chinese said that the Vietnamese survey ship was operating illegally in their territory; therefore their actions were completely justified 

June, 2011 - Vietnam and China Vietnam protested Chinese naval ships using weapons to threaten Vietnamese fishermen. 

June, 2011 - Philippines and China A Chinese patrol vessel reportedly fired at Philippines fishing vessels. 

June, 2011 - Philippines and China Foreign Secretary Alberto del Rosario’s visited the US.Philippines asked the US for leverage against China. 

June, 2011 - Philippines and China 11-day US-Philippines naval exercise near the South China Sea. President Aquino pledged to bring the South China Sea dispute before the UN International Tribunal on the Law of the Sea 

June 3, 2011 - Vietnam and China High-level Meeting - International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) Asian Security SummitFollowing the Vietnam-China incident in May, defence officials met in Singapore.Both parties agreed to abide by: UNCLOS (1982)Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the East Sea (DOCSettling the matter through diplomacy 

June 13, 2011 - Vietnam and China Incidents at Sea - Live-fire naval exercises by Vietnam, after several incidents straining relations between Vietnam and China.

June 17, 2011 - China Major Military Exercise - Military drills near South China Sea, following live-firing naval exercises by Vietnam 

June 27, 2011 - US and China Meetings/Resolutions - The US Senate unanimously passed a resolution deploring the use of force by China in the South China Sea, calling for peaceful and multilateral resolutions. 

June, 2011 - Philippines and China Incidents at Sea - Chinese surveillance ship and 2 marine vessels unloaded building materials and buoys, and put up posts on the reefs claimed by Manila. Diplomatic flare-up between Beijing and Manila. 

July, 2011 - US and China Meetings/MMCA - Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff of both states met in Beijing.China criticised US' joint exercises with Vietnam and the Philippines.US maintained its support to its allies in the region. 

September 21-22, 2011 - US and China China announced severed obstacles to normal military-to-military exchanges between the 2 countries, following US arms sale to Taiwan. 

October, 2011 - Philippines-China Incidents at Sea - Philippines warship accidentally struck a Chinese fishing boat.Incident occurred amid joint US-Philippines marine drills/war games. The Philippines Navy apologised

November, 2011 US and China High-level Meeting - East-Asia Summit - President Obama and Premier Wen Jiabao held an unscheduled meeting on the sidelines. Discussed the South China Sea. 

November, 2011 - US and China  High-level Meeting - Defense Consultative Talks (DCT)China’s acceptance of US calls to put bilateral military relationship on a more reliable/continuous footing. US reiterated ensuring freedom of navigation. 

December, 2011 - US and China High-level Talks - 4t high-level dialogue between the Communist Party of China and the Republican and Democratic parties of the US 

December, 2011 - US and China Implementation of the Megaport Initiative to monitor for “nuclear and other radioactive materials in cargo containers” at Shanghai’s Yangshan Port. 

March, 2012 - US Major Military Exercise - Military drills, with the Philippines, near South China Sea have been confirmed for next month. 

March, 2012 - China Major Military Exercise - 11th detachment of Chinese navy’s anti-piracy operation carried out live fire training. 

April-June 2012 - China, the Philippines
Territorial Dispute - Over two-month standoff in the Scarborough Shoal
Diplomatic efforts have not led to the resolution of the issue, with escalation of rhetoric but restrained naval/maritime enforcement maneuvers 

June 2012 - China, Vietnam Territorial Dispute - Over Vietnam’s passage of its maritime law. Beijing reiterates its positions on “irrefutable sovereignty” over the Paracel and Spratly Islands 

July 2012 - ASEAN - ASEAN foreign ministers meeting in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. ASEAN meeting failed to issue communiqué due to disagreement on how to address the South China Sea territorial disputes

Oher recent events/incidents that we have compiled related to PH diputes with China:

On 29  November 2012, China declared that it would board and search ships which "illegally enterwhat China considers its territory in the disputed South China Sea according to a Reuters Report. 

On 22 January 2013, Secretary of Foreign Affairs Albert del Rosario announced that PH was taking China to the UN for arbitration.  

On 31 January 2013, China's Foreign Ministry announced its opposition to the Philippines' request to take South China Sea disputes to a UN tribunal.

On 04 February 2013, in a show aimed at intimidating its neigbours specifically the Philippines, an ally of the United States, China launched maritime patrol and naval drills in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea.

*NB: THE SCARBOROUGH SHOAL STAND OFF

On April 8, 2012, a Philippine Navy surveillance plane spotted eight Chinese fishing vessels docked at the waters of Scarborough shoal. BRP Gregorio del Pilar was sent on the same day by the Philippine Navy to survey the vicinity of the shoal, and confirmed the presence of the fishing vessels and their ongoing activities.  

On April 10, 2012, BRP Gregorio del Pilar came to inspect the catch of the fishing vessels. The inspection team discovered illegally collected corals, giant clams and live sharks inside the first vessel boarded by the team. BRP Gregorio del Pilar reported that they attempted to arrest the Chinese fishermen but were blocked by Chinese maritime surveillance ships, China Marine Surveillance 75 (Zhongguo Haijian 75) and China Marine Surveillance 84 (Zhongguo Haijian 84) . Since then, tensions continue between the two countries.

Former Marine Capt. Nicanor Faeldon, planned to lead a group of fishermen to the Scarborough shoal as a protest to assert the Philippines' claim over the shoal. Faeldon also considered planting a Philippine flag on the shoal.

On May 18, President Aquino, called Faeldon to dissuade him from pushing through his trip. According to Faeldon, even though his plan push through, his group does not intend to plant a flag, as opposed to earlier reports, or to fish in the area. Continued Chinese presence 

As of June 26, fishing vessels, together with paramilitary ships, are still in Scarborough shoal despite the Chinese fishing ban still effect.

By July 2012, China had erected a barrier to the entrance of the shoal, and that vessels belonging to Beijing's China Marine Surveillance and Fisheries Law Enforcement Command were observed nearby the disputed shoal 

As of September 2012, Chinese government ships remain around the shoal and have been turning away Filipino vessels] In response the Philippines is preparing to resend vessels to the shoal, in what has been described as a "cold standoff".

It is true that China today is the most powerful in the region in terms of economy and military arsenal but because of its increasing political and military assertiveness, its unparalleled show of force in the region to date, China has created an environment of instability and has heightened tension among members of the ASEAN, including Japan which has decided not to be intimidated and instead, increased its defence budget this year. The same is true for the Philippines which has decided to go on a defence shopping binge in a bid to show China that it cannot be intimidated, and rightly so.

China has failed to demonstrate that it has what it takes to aspire for the world leadership role that it so craves. Its unpredictability, its continuing show of bully tactics in the South China Sea/West Philippine Sea which are meant to make its neighbours cower in fear and, its self-serving interpretations of the 2002 Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea when it suits it are some of the legitimate reasons why we cannot trust China.

The only way for China to even begin to alleviate the worries and the tension it has created in the region is to abide by the 2002 DOC without misinterpreting its provisions and to return Scarborough to the Philippines without fail. NO BUTS, NO IFS.

~~ Admin AdB
04 February 2012